Skip to main content

Cabudare · Barquisimeto · Lara state

EspañolSearch

Civic plan

Plan for a free and prosperous Venezuela

A dictator fell, but not the system that held him up. Research and experience show how a people wins back its freedom without violence, step by step: from what each of us can change today to the rich country Venezuela once was.

Everything this page proposes is peaceful and legal. According to the research, it is the path that has won most often over the past century, and the one that tends to leave longer-lasting democracies.

Where we stand today

Maduro has been held in the United States since January 3, 2026, but power remains with the same group: Delcy Rodríguez governs as acting president [4][68]. On September 23 she promised at the UN that "there will be elections", without giving a date [4], and on the 25th her brother Jorge Rodríguez announced four votes and left the presidential one for last [57].

Something did change: there is more room to protest, and the UN Fact-Finding Mission acknowledges it. But on September 16 it warned that "the repressive apparatus remains intact" [2]. And María Corina Machado still cannot return: three more attempts failed on September 22 [13]. Since September 26 there have been releases of political prisoners, which Foro Penal is still verifying case by case [39]. That is why a plan is needed.

In figures

  • 344

    political prisoners as of September 14, 2026, 144 of them military (before the releases of the 26th) [1]

  • 3,495

    protests in the first half of 2026, almost three times as many as a year earlier [3]

  • 80%

    of the 2024 tally sheets, or more, were collected and published by opposition poll watchers and volunteers [45]

  • 149

    web domains were still restricted as of September 26, even though 66 were unblocked that day on at least one provider [38]

Why the peaceful path wins

Between 1900 and 2006, major nonviolent campaigns achieved their goal 53% of the time; armed ones, only 26% [42]. The reason is simple: anyone can join a peaceful movement (the grandmother, the student, the police officer who has doubts), and the more people take part, the harder repression becomes to sustain.

There is a famous rule, the 3.5% rule: almost no government held on when that share of the population mobilized against it at its peak. Its author, political scientist Erica Chenoweth, asks that it be read as a trend, not a law: most movements that won did so with fewer people, and at least one (Bahrain, from 2011) lost with more [44].

She also warns that since 2010 movements win less often, because they rely too much on marches and social media and tolerate violent groups. What she recommends is organizing before taking to the streets, growing in numbers and variety, and keeping discipline [43].

Peaceful campaigns win twice as often

Major campaigns against governments, 1900–2006: share that achieved their goal

0%25%50%75%100%Nonviolent53%Violent26%
View data as a table
Peaceful campaigns win twice as often
Type of campaignSuccess
Nonviolent53%
Violent26%
Source: Stephan and Chenoweth, International Security, 2008 [42].

The more people take part, the likelier the win

Campaign success by peak participation (share of the population)

0%50%100%≥ 3.5%88.9%1% – 3.5%61.0%0.25% – 1%45.7%0.0035% – 0.015%9.1%< 0.0035%4.2%
View data as a table
The more people take part, the likelier the win
Peak participationCasesSuccess
≥ 3.5%1888.89%
1% – 3.5%4160.98%
0.25% – 1%9245.65%
0.0035% – 0.015%449.09%
< 0.0035%244.17%
Note: The original study does not include the band between 0.015 and 0.25%.Source: Chenoweth, Carr Center, Harvard, 2020 [44].

Your roadmap

Here are the tools and the road. No one is going to walk it for us: deciding and acting is up to you, your family and your community. Climb level by level; each one has a clear goal so you know you're ready for the next.

Working through it as a group? Print it or save it as a PDF with all five levels, or share the link.

The plan at a glance

Five stops on the same road. Tap one to open its level.

  1. You
  2. Your community
  3. The country
  4. When the doors close
  5. A prosperous Venezuela

Where do I start?

Five quick questions. Answer honestly: no one else sees your answers.

  1. 1. Do you get your news from outlets that cite their sources, and have you already protected your phone?

  2. 2. Do you have an organized group you trust near you?

  3. 3. Do you know the conditions the opposition asks for free elections?

  4. 4. Does your group know what to do if a door closes, without scattering or taking the bait?

  5. 5. Do you know what to ask of the next government so that prosperity lasts?

Answer all five questions to see your result. (0/5)

Change begins with how we live each day

A regime looks invincible as long as each person pretends to agree with it. The first thing anyone can change, today and without risk, is that.

What to do

  1. Stop pretending in small things

    Don't repeat slogans you don't believe or share propaganda. The writer Václav Havel explained it with a greengrocer who puts an official slogan in his shop window just to be left in peace: the system exists as long as everyone shares that lie [33].

  2. Get good information and share only what is verified

    Look for outlets that cite their sources and distrust whatever makes you angry without proof. Today 72 news sites are still blocked in the country [37]: reading them anyway is resistance.

  3. Protect your phone and your data

    Ask yourself four questions: what do I want to protect, from whom, how likely is it that I will need to, and what happens if it fails [40]. In Venezuela, the government has urged people to use an official app, VenApp, to report "traitors to the nation" [36]. If you need help, Access Now answers for free, in Spanish, 24 hours a day at help@accessnow.org [41].

  4. Use gestures that don't expose you

    Colors, lights, silences, mourning, tributes: they are among the 198 methods of nonviolent action catalogued by Gene Sharp [35]. They let people see they are not alone.

What the research says

The economist Timur Kuran studied Eastern Europe in 1989: people hid what they thought, and that made governments look invincible; when enough people lost their fear, change came all at once and surprised everyone [32]. Something similar was seen in Venezuela on July 28, 2024: the tally sheets collected by the opposition gave Edmundo González more than twice Maduro's votes [45].

Level goalGoal: you no longer pretend, you are well informed and your phone is protected. Once you're there, move up to level 2.

The plan in a table

  1. You
    Who
    Each person
    What to do
    • Stop pretending in small things
    • Get good information and share only what is verified
    • Protect your phone and your data
    • Use gestures that don't expose you
    Goal
    You no longer pretend, you are well informed and your phone is protected. Once you're there, move up to level 2.
  2. Your community
    Who
    Groups of neighbors, co-workers or classmates
    What to do
    • Form or revive a group you trust
    • Get ready now to defend the vote
    • Build mutual-aid networks
    • Agree on the golden rule: no violence
    • It's not all marching
    Goal
    Your trusted group has a name, about ten people and a plan to watch every table at your polling station.
  3. The country
    Who
    The whole country, united
    What to do
    • Demand concrete conditions
    • One route and a message about the future
    • Justice with truth, not revenge
    • The Constitution is on our side
    Goal
    Your community knows and demands the same conditions as the rest of the country, with one message.
  4. When the doors close
    Who
    Organized groups and allies
    What to do
    • Speak to police and soldiers
    • Document what happens
    • Changing tactics is not giving up
    • Ask allies for the right kind of help
    Goal
    If a door closes, your group knows how to change tactics without scattering, and everything is documented.
  5. A prosperous Venezuela
    Who
    The next government, with people watching
    What to do
    • Stop inflation
    • Clear rules and independent judges
    • Rebuild oil with investment
    • Sort out the debt
    • Power, water and schools
    • Bring back those who left
    Goal
    When change comes, we know what to ask of the new government so that prosperity lasts.

How we'll know we're winning

These are the signs that, according to research and other transitions, show a movement is moving forward. Watch for them and share them.

  1. More and more people take part, and more varied ones

    The size and variety of a movement are what weigh most in its success [44].

  2. One road and one message

    Parties, unions, universities, churches and the diaspora push in the same direction [6].

  3. Officials and people in uniform begin to switch sides

    When security forces stop repressing, the chances of success multiply [42].

  4. The political prisoners go free, all of them

    Foro Penal keeps the verified count: the number has to reach zero [1].

  5. An independent electoral authority and a date to vote

    It is the condition the opposition and democratic allies ask for free elections [54].

  6. The truth can be told without fear

    News sites unblocked and no one detained for their opinions: today dozens of news domains remain blocked [37].

My commitment

Check what you already do or commit to doing. It is saved only on your phone or computer.

0 of 80 %

Every great change started with someone taking the first step.

We do not send or store this list on any server.

We were the richest country in South America and can be again

Venezuela had the highest income per person in South America every year from 1950 to 1995 [14]. Other countries rose from similar collapses, and their measures are below.

Venezuela was the richest in the region

GDP per person, 2011 international dollars (purchasing power parity), 1950–2022

  • Venezuela
  • Chile
  • Argentina
  • Colombia
05,00010,00015,00020,00025,000195019701990201020225,267
View data as a table
Venezuela was the richest in the region
YearVenezuelaChileArgentinaColombia
19508,4625,8807,9493,432
195510,5016,3418,3483,783
196012,1166,7818,8613,980
196514,3477,20810,1554,286
197015,2898,19511,6394,932
197516,3856,73112,9465,772
198016,2709,02413,0806,786
198513,2708,02410,8956,809
199013,25110,20310,2547,693
199514,44813,71613,0868,736
200013,99315,21214,3698,497
200514,94417,13715,3449,525
201017,10618,91018,98011,192
201516,33321,57419,42413,237
20204,95320,20615,97612,377
20225,26722,74118,29214,469
Source: Maddison Project Database 2023 [14].

Oil can come back, with investment

Venezuela's oil production, millions of barrels a day

012343.519980.903Feb 20262.02032(scenario)3.02040(scenario)
View data as a table
Oil can come back, with investment
MomentMillions of barrels a day
19983.5
Feb 20260.903
2032 (scenario)2.0
2040 (scenario)3.0
Source: Elcano Royal Institute [21]; OPEC via Industrial Info [23]; Rystad Energy scenario [22].

How many years to get back to the 2012 peak

Years needed by annual growth of income per person (newsroom calculation)

01530453% a year42.55% a year25.77% a year18.610% a year13.2
View data as a table
How many years to get back to the 2012 peak
Annual growthYears
3% a year42.5
5% a year25.7
7% a year18.6
10% a year13.2
Note: Our calculation with the Maddison series, in constant 2011 dollars: from 5,267 dollars (2022, the last year in the series) to 18,486 (2012). Not a forecast.Source: Maddison Project Database 2023 [14].

From 2013 to today

  1. April 14, 2013

    Maduro wins by a razor-thin margin and Capriles rejects the result

    [63]

  2. December 6, 2015

    The opposition wins two thirds of the National Assembly

    [64]

  3. 2017

    Months of protests; the UN denounces a policy of repression

    [65]

  4. November 3, 2021

    The International Criminal Court opens the Venezuela I investigation

    [61]

  5. October 22, 2023

    María Corina Machado wins the opposition primary

    [66]

  6. July 28, 2024

    The opposition's tally sheets, more than 80%, show Edmundo González won; the electoral council proclaims Maduro without publishing the breakdown

    [45]

  7. October 10, 2025

    Machado is announced as winner of the Nobel Peace Prize

    [67]

  8. January 3, 2026

    The United States captures Maduro; Delcy Rodríguez takes over

    [68]

  9. February 19, 2026

    A limited Amnesty Law is approved

    [10]

  10. May 3, 2026

    Protests for the political prisoners in more than 120 cities

    [9]

  11. May 28, 2026

    Panama Manifesto: the roadmap of Machado, González and the Unitary Platform

    [6]

  12. July 24, 2026

    The government announces its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court

    [12]

  13. September 16, 2026

    The UN: "the repressive apparatus remains intact"

    [2]

  14. September 23, 2026

    A promise of elections at the UN, with no date

    [4]

The next step is yours

No one is going to do this for us. But you don't need to be a hero either: it is enough to stop pretending, organize with the people next to you and not give up. That is how other countries recovered, and that is how we will.

Reader poll, not scientific

What should come first in a free Venezuela?

See results

Anonymous. We don't store your IP. Only an encrypted fingerprint that doesn't reveal your vote and is deleted at midnight. One vote per browser per day (one per connection without JavaScript); your browser keeps a random number that changes every day and says nothing about who you are. It is not a representative sample: it only shows how the people who saw it here answered.

Reader poll, not scientific

Do you think there will be free elections in the next two years?

See results

Anonymous. We don't store your IP. Only an encrypted fingerprint that doesn't reveal your vote and is deleted at midnight. One vote per browser per day (one per connection without JavaScript); your browser keeps a random number that changes every day and says nothing about who you are. It is not a representative sample: it only shows how the people who saw it here answered.

Sources

Consulted between September 25 and 26, 2026. Every figure on this page links to its source.

  1. 1.El Diario (datos de Foro Penal), Presos políticos en Venezuela, septiembre de 2026 (Sep 18, 2026).
  2. 2.Oficina de la ONU para los Derechos Humanos (Misión de Determinación de los Hechos), Venezuela: Amidst limited political changes, country's repressive apparatus remains intact, UN Fact-Finding Mission says (Sep 16, 2026).
  3. 3.Observatorio Venezolano de Conflictividad Social, Conflictividad social en Venezuela durante el primer semestre de 2026 (Aug 15, 2026).
  4. 4.Al Jazeera (AP/Reuters), Venezuela's Delcy Rodriguez promises elections at UN, gives no date (Sep 24, 2026).
  5. 5.Human Rights Watch, Punished for Seeking Change: Killings, Enforced Disappearances and Arbitrary Detention (Apr 30, 2025).
  6. 6.Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, María Corina Machado y Edmundo González (vía Diario Las Américas), Manifiesto de Panamá (May 28, 2026).
  7. 7.El Diario, Machado y Edmundo González: «No seremos obstáculo» (Jul 26, 2026).
  8. 8.El Nacional, «¡Que sean todos!»: familiares de presos políticos cumplen 26 días de vigilia (Feb 3, 2026).
  9. 9.El Nacional, Más de 120 ciudades del mundo exigieron la liberación inmediata de los presos políticos en Venezuela (May 3, 2026).
  10. 10.NPR, Venezuela approves amnesty that could release hundreds detained for political reasons (Feb 19, 2026).
  11. 11.CNN en Español, Delcy Rodríguez destituye a Vladimir Padrino López como ministro de Defensa (Mar 18, 2026).
  12. 12.Al Jazeera, Venezuela to exit International Criminal Court, accusing it of 'bias' (Jul 24, 2026).
  13. 13.MVS Noticias, Frustran regreso de María Corina Machado a Venezuela (Sep 23, 2026).
  14. 14.Bolt y van Zanden, Maddison Project Database 2023 (vía Our World in Data), GDP per capita, 1950–2022 (international-$ in 2011 prices) (2024).
  15. 15.Fondo Monetario Internacional, World Economic Outlook (DataMapper), Inflation rate, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH) (consultado 26-sep-2026).
  16. 16.National Bureau of Economic Research, Ending the Hyperinflation, 1985-88 (Bolivia).
  17. 17.Armas y Quispe, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (DT-2025-026), Hyperinflation and Stabilization: The case of Peru 1988-1992 (Dec 2025).
  18. 18.Assaf Razin, NBER Working Paper 23061, Israel's Triumph over Inflation (2017).
  19. 19.CNBC, Venezuela embarks on $150 billion restructuring of debt amid political turmoil (May 14, 2026).
  20. 20.Alejandro Werner, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Are Venezuelan bondholders trying to jump the line? (Jun 8, 2026).
  21. 21.Gonzalo Escribano, Real Instituto Elcano, Venezuela's oil: evolution, scenarios and international repercussions (Jan 22, 2026).
  22. 22.Rystad Energy (vía AJOT), What would it take to bring Venezuela's oil output back to 3 million bpd? (Jan 2026).
  23. 23.Industrial Info Resources (datos de la OPEP), OPEC Finds Venezuelan Oil Production Below Last Year's Peak (Mar 13, 2026).
  24. 24.Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard Growth Lab), Project Syndicate, Venezuelan Democracy Needs Action, Not Cheap Talk (Feb 20, 2026).
  25. 25.R4V, Plataforma de Coordinación Interagencial (ACNUR y OIM), Refugees and Migrants from Venezuela (Aug 2026).
  26. 26.Descifrado (Encuesta ENCOVI 2025, UCAB), Encovi 2025: pobreza total en Venezuela bajó a 68,5 % y la extrema se situó en 31,7 % (May 7, 2026).
  27. 27.Fondo Monetario Internacional, IMF Reengagement with Venezuela (FAQs) (Apr 21, 2026).
  28. 28.Eduardo Aninat, FMI Finance & Development, Chile in the 1990s: Embracing Development Opportunities (Mar 2000).
  29. 29.Leszek Balcerowicz, FMI Finance & Development, Poland's Transformation (Sep 2000).
  30. 30.Sutt, Zavoico y Knöbl, FMI (WP/02/96), The Estonian Currency Board: Its Introduction and Role in the Early Success of Estonia's Transition (2002).
  31. 31.Bloomberg (vía Energy Connects), Venezuela's faulty power grid risks derailing economic comeback (May 2026).
  32. 32.Timur Kuran, World Politics 44(1), Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989 (Oct 1991).
  33. 33.Václav Havel (texto alojado por ICNC), The Power of the Powerless (1978).
  34. 34.Commons Library, Pillars of Support: Start Here (updated Aug 2026).
  35. 35.Albert Einstein Institution (Gene Sharp), 198 Methods of Nonviolent Action.
  36. 36.Ángela Alarcón, Access Now, Venezuela's many means of surveillance and control (Aug 29, 2024).
  37. 37.El Diario (datos de VE sin Filtro), VE Sin Filtro registró que 117 dominios siguen bloqueados en Venezuela (Sep 25, 2026).
  38. 38.El Diario (datos de VE sin Filtro), VE sin Filtro: 66 dominios fueron desbloqueados, pero más de 149 siguen restringidos (Sep 26, 2026).
  39. 39.El Diario, Foro Penal confirmó la excarcelación de «un número importante» de presos políticos (Sep 26, 2026).
  40. 40.Electronic Frontier Foundation, Autodefensa contra la vigilancia, Tu plan de seguridad.
  41. 41.Access Now, Digital Security Helpline.
  42. 42.Maria J. Stephan y Erica Chenoweth, International Security 33(1), Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict (2008).
  43. 43.Erica Chenoweth, Journal of Democracy 31(3), The Future of Nonviolent Resistance (Jul 2020).
  44. 44.Erica Chenoweth, Carr Center, Harvard Kennedy School, Questions, Answers, and Some Cautionary Updates Regarding the 3.5% Rule (Apr 2020).
  45. 45.Centro Carter, Final Election Report: Observation of the 2024 Presidential Election in Venezuela (Feb 2025).
  46. 46.AP (vía PBS NewsHour), AP review of vote tallies provided by Venezuela opposition casts doubt on official election results (Aug 3, 2024).
  47. 47.FLACSO Ecuador, Acción Noviolenta, La rebelión de los Comanditos.
  48. 48.Foro Penal, Nosotros.
  49. 49.TalCual, Qué dicen los artículos 233, 333 y 350 de la Constitución (Jan 11, 2019).
  50. 50.IDEA Internacional (testimonio de Kenneth Wollack, NDI), Chilean Plebiscite – 1988 (2025).
  51. 51.European Network Remembrance and Solidarity, Polish legislative elections of 1989.
  52. 52.Congreso de los Diputados (España), 6 de diciembre del 78, el pueblo ha hablado (Dec 6, 2022).
  53. 53.Encyclopaedia Britannica, Truth and Reconciliation Commission, South Africa (TRC).
  54. 54.EFE (vía swissinfo.ch), La oposición venezolana presenta un plan para lograr «elecciones libres» y una transición (Apr 12, 2026).
  55. 55.Vente Venezuela, Venezuela Tierra de Gracia (plan de gobierno) (Oct 2023).
  56. 56.CNN en Español, Fin de la ley de amnistía: detenidos políticos siguen en prisión (Apr 24, 2026).
  57. 57.El Nacional, Jorge Rodríguez dice que se celebrarán cuatro procesos electorales en Venezuela y dejó de último las presidenciales (Sep 26, 2026).
  58. 58.Reseña de «Nonviolent Revolutions» (Sharon Erickson Nepstad), Journal of International and Global Studies, Nonviolent Revolutions: Civil Resistance in the Late 20th Century.
  59. 59.John Otis, NPR, Venezuela's Army Remains Supportive Of President Maduro (Mar 21, 2019).
  60. 60.Peksen y Drury, International Interactions 36(3), Coercive or Corrosive: The Negative Impact of Economic Sanctions on Democracy (2010).
  61. 61.Corte Penal Internacional, Venezuela I.
  62. 62.Al Jazeera, What drove Venezuela's decision to leave the ICC? (Jul 27, 2026).
  63. 63.CNN en Español, Elecciones en Venezuela 2013: resultados y lo que dijo la oposición.
  64. 64.CBS News, Venezuela opposition wins supermajority in National Assembly (Dec 2015).
  65. 65.Oficina de la ONU para los Derechos Humanos, Venezuela: Human rights violations indicate policy to repress political dissent – UN report (Aug 2017).
  66. 66.CNN en Español, Proclaman a María Corina Machado ganadora de las primarias opositoras en Venezuela (Oct 26, 2023).
  67. 67.Comité Noruego del Nobel, The Nobel Peace Prize 2025 (press release) (Oct 10, 2025).
  68. 68.House of Commons Library (Reino Unido), Venezuela: the capture of Nicolás Maduro (CBP-10452) (2026).

Share this page